"If it keeps going this way, yes, it's going to hurt business," says Jerry Seiner, who runs a group of dealerships in the Salt Lake City area that includes General Motors, Nissan and Kia. Any reduction in sales would be especially painful for Toyota and Honda dealers, who are just starting to restock their showrooms after months of shortages brought on by Japan's earthquake. In a sign of how sensitive buyers have become to stock swings, showrooms are active on days the market is up, but empty when it's down, Seiner says. The Dow Jones industrial average has fallen 10 percent since July 22, with wild swings up and down along the way. Gilbert Baldwin, 66, a retired auto worker from Ypsilanti, Mich., decided to wait for the market to stabilize before replacing his 2002 Ford Explorer. He was shopping for a new car last month, but now he's worried about higher gas and food prices and the possibility of Social Security cuts as Congress looks for ways to cut the deficit. The lack of confidence isn't what car dealers want to hear, especially in August, usually a strong sales month as dealers clear lots of 2011 models to make room for 2012 cars and trucks. Carmakers report August sales in the U.S. on Sept. 1. In the Washington, D.C., area, which is likely to be hit by government spending cuts, sales at Tammy Darvish's chain of about two-dozen dealerships fell by more than 2 percent in early August. She's worried the slow pace could continue for the rest of the month. But dealers say sales likely won't collapse in the second half of 2011, as they did in 2009. That's because banks are lending more freely, and lease deals, which went away during the recession, are making a comeback. Also, older cars will still need to be replaced. The average age of a car in the U.S. is 10.6 years, up more than a full year from 2008, according to the research firm Polk. Indeed, the turmoil in financial markets isn't scaring off everyone. Jason Ashton, 38, of Shelby Township, Mich., plans to trade in his 2006 Dodge Ram pickup for a roomier SUV that will fit his wife, two kids and equipment. "You've got to have room for the family," he says, trying to swing a deal for a Durango at Van Dyke Dodge in Warren, Mich. But Ashton, who installs software for auto companies, will buy only if he gets a price low enough to keep his monthly payment steady. He also won't spend as